Non-probabilistic

• Best of Best

we choose the alternative with the best of the best payoffs.

它找出每種行動的最好結果，再從最好結果中找一個更好的做為選擇

• Best of Worst scenario
we choose the alternative that has best of the worst payoffs. We first choose the worst payoff in each alternative, and then choose the best of them.
它找出每種行動的最壞結果, 再從最壞結果中找一個最好的做為它的選擇

Opportunity Loss (Minimax Regret) 最小機會損失準則

• Minimize the maximum regret.

• 決策首先要電腦會損失 (後悔值) 矩陣; 機會損失的概念是，當一個事件發生時，由於你沒有選擇最優決策 而帶來的收入損失。

• 決策者不知道各種自然狀態中任一種發生的機率，決策目標是確保避免較大的機會損失。

• 運用最小最大後悔值法時，首先要將決策矩陣從利潤矩陣轉變為機會損失矩陣；然後確定每一可選方案的最大機會損失；再次，在這些方案的最大機會損失中，選出一個最小值，與該最小值對應的可選方案便是決策選擇的方案.

• we choose the alternative with the minimum of all the maximum regrets across all alternatives. Regret is the difference between the best payoff and the actual payoff received in a particular state of nature.

Probabilistic

Expected Monetary Value (EMV)

 

Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)

we choose the best payoff for each state of nature and multiply them by the probability of their state of nature, and add the results.

Expected Regret or Opportunity Loss (EOL)

由於6 為最小值， 所以invest in Bond

Posterior probability

Expected Value of Sample Information

Scenario: Now suppose there is an economic consultant that can provide additional information about the states of nature (or outcomes). And this consultant has some success history. We now have an additional decision situation. Should we hire this consultant or not?